Will AZ Go Blue or Just More Purple in 2018?

AZ Democrats Plan to Win AZ US Senate & CD 8

The Democrats did much better than they ever imagined in the CD 8’s Special Election in April, and will now move forward with a plan to win the AZ US Senate Seat and CD 8 plus some AZ Statewide and LD Seats as well and have an Extra Special Plan to do so.

Here are some numbers from the Special CD 8 Election that show us just how close we came to losing CD 8 to the Democrats in April of 18.
CD 8 comprised of 9 LDs including 1, 4, 13, 15, 20, 21, 22, 29 and 30, and 142 Precincts with 455,066 Registered Voters with an average age of 43.
Results:
Mail in Ballots:

48.5% Cast by Republicans

27.7% Cast by Democrats

23.8% Cast by All Others = 51.5% Demonstrating Republicans needed others to win, and we also lost some Republican Votes to the Democrats and I was told this by some personally while gathering signatures for my LD 22 Senate Race and didn’t sign telling me I’m to Conservative for them.

Voter Turn Out:
40.19% General Election Turnout
25.62% Primary Election Turnout

CD 8 Special General Election Results

Republican D. Lesko 96,012 Votes = 52.4%
Democrat H. Tipirneni 87,331 Votes = 47.6% = 4.8 %,
so 96,012 – 87,331 = 8,681 by 2 = 4,341 votes flipped + 1 we lose, and they plan for a higher turnout due to their Extra Special Issue.

Much smaller margin than Normal so as all can see without the Votes of Non Republicans we would have Lost.

The GOP has a 17.5% Registered Voter Advantage and only won by 4.8%, so a shift of 2.4% and we lose in CD 8 to the Democrats and as we all know you don’t win the State without CD 8, which could very well lead to Our US Senate Seat also going to the Democrats plus other Statewide andLegislative Seats.

Let’s Examine Just Who We Are in CD 8?

LD 22 has more registered voters than 12 of the State’s 15 Counties.

LD 22 also has more Registered Republicans than all AZ Counties, with the exceptions of Maricopa and Pima.
Out of the 30 LDs in AZ: LD 22 is the Third Largest in Voter Population.

LD 22 has the Fourth Largest Republican Voter Total.

Here’s Some Good News for LD 22

LD 22 turned out 15,000 more votes for Lesko than the next closest LD, and if we hadn’t the end result would have been much different.

LD 22 Republicans won by 6,704 votes or a 9.8 point spread, however please keep in mind that LD 22 represents 40% of GOP in CD 8, so still short of projections.

LD 21 Republicans won by 228 votes or a .4 point spread and it represents 30% of the GOP in CD 8, weak performance.

LD 13 Republicans won by 892 or a 1 point spread and they represent 10% of the Republicans in CD 8 weak again.

LD 20 Lost by 948 votes or by a 6.6 point spread, they along with the remaining LDs 1, 4, 15, 29 and 30 represent the remaining 20% of CD 8 Republican Voters.

Here’s the BAD NEWS

6 of LD 22 Precincts went to the Democrats and Lesko’s 2018 Point spread was only 9.8 over the Democrats.

President Trump’s Point Spread in LD 22 over Lying Hillary was 28, so LD 22 Lost 18.2 between 2016 & 2018, and this is a dangerous sign when you factor in the Extra Special Issue the Democratsare going to have to Generate more Votes in the 2018 General, that more than likely will Drive Up Democrat Voter Turnout and even cause some of the Left Wing GOP to vote 4 them.

God Bless You All; Clair VAN Steenwyk